2021 MotoGP Stats & Analysis
2021 In-Season Performance Trajectories
The performance trajectory tracks each rider’s historical performance to identify positive and negative trends in their career, offering a projection for future insights. A negative value suggests a strong trajectory with consistent improvement from one year to the next, taking into account every single Grand Prix. A more negative value suggests a quicker rate of improvement whereas a value close to zero, resembles little change from one year to the next and a positive value identifies riders who are unable to match their previous performances.
More seasoned riders will often be found around zero or a small positive value as they have already made great strides in their career and are now either in the fine tuning stages with minor but critical improvements or sometimes, begin the inevitable plateau in their performance. On the contrary, greener riders will often jump between the two ends of the spectrum as they are exploring a time of significant advancements and their data reflects the major stepping stones achieved before reaching the fine tuning stage.
Speed Index Trajectory
The Speed Index represents a rider’s ability of holding a competitive speed throughout a race on any given circuit on both a sector and circuit (all sectors combined) level.
Consistency Index Trajectory
The Consistency Index represents a rider’s ability of maintaining minimal variance in both sector and lap times on any given circuit.
2021 French Grand Prix
Le Mans
Average Historical Combined Index
The Average Historical Combined Index ranks riders by their ability to maintain a balance between consistency and speed throughout a race. This index takes into account the past 4 years of data for this specific circuit with the more recent years weighted heavier to account for career shifts, team changes and new riders. The smaller the index, the stronger the performance on a circuit basis (all sectors combined) in regard to superior speed with strong, supplementary consistency in lap times.
Average Historical Deterioration and Efficiency Indexes
MotoGP is more than a fast bike with a talented rider, it is a fine balance between multiple variables. To help illustrate the complexity of the racing ecosystem, we have plotted two essential skill sets that help to identify the awareness and calculated nature of each rider. The Deterioration Index portrays a rider’s ability to maintain their pace throughout a race by managing tire life, stamina and evolving track conditions. Supplementary to that, the Efficiency Index measures a rider’s ability to maintain forward momentum throughout a race with clean, executed passes and awareness of opponents in regard to strategic defensive and offensive riding.
Both indexes are displayed by rank opposed to raw index.
Position Probabilities
Below are the position probabilities for each rider going into the fifth round of the 2021 MotoGP season at the Le Mans Circuit. Rider’s with 1+ years of data within the MotoGP class are included with a probability spread across multiple positions to illustrate their historical performance and future outlook. To view a specific rider’s probabilities, place your curser on his name to illuminate his spread, or place your curser on a pie and % to see which rider it refers to.